A high-level New York State Republican tells us that the state party still believes Vito Fossella will either announce his resignation or his end-of-term retirement later Monday as per an "understanding" they had with Fossella's camp. Fossella's hired-gun though says there will be no news of any kind today.

The discussions at the state and national level vis-a-vis Fossella's future boil down to this: How best to retain the seat in Republican hands. If he were to resign there would probably be a special election that could help Republicans since it would take place in the middle of the summer and feature a pretty low turnout enabling the better-organized Staten Island GOP to get out their vote.

If he decides to stay on until the end of his term it would allow the GOP more time to recruit and sell a replacement candidate but would force that person to compete in the general election which, in a presidential year, will feature a huge turnout that could favor the Dems.

National and state GOP leaders say they have made it clear they do NOT support Fossella running for reelection and will NOT give him any support. Still one top NY Republican concedes the Staten Island GOP is like a "mob family" and that it will do what it (and Fossella) wants.