Several top New York Republicans said that Congressman Vito Fossella's resignation will come very soon.

There was political concern about how best to preserve the seat for the Republicans -- questions about immediate resignation versus finishing out his term and retiring -- but the calculation is there's nothing to be gained from Fossella sticking around. While Staten Island Republicans believe Fossella could at least serve out his term (the rest of the year) national Republicans want him gone. Now.

Why the rush? Look at the big picture.

The Democratic lead in the House has been growing since the dramatic 2006 election results and 2008 looks increasingly difficult for the GOP. Twenty-seven incumbent Republican House members are retiring this year, including two in New York state and two in New Jersey. By historical standards that's a huge number, and it's significant because open seats are relatively rare and present the best opportunity for either party to flip seats. Republican seats in the Northeast are at the most risk because the region has turned pretty reliably Democratic in this decade.

That's why top national Republicans want Fossella gone ASAP. They've got enough problems as it is and a quick Fossella exit coupled with a special election with a strong Republican candidate (Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan?) could give the party something to brag about going into the fall.

If Fossella resigns before July 1, Gov. David Paterson has the option of calling that special election. There are no time parameters on making the declaration, but once Paterson calls for a special election it has to be run in 30 to 40 days. But a more likely scenario, according to one Democratic consultant, is that Paterson would not declare a special election since the general election would come such a short time after the special election.

The ulterior motive for such a decision is that it would keep Republicans from taking advantage of a low-turnout special election they would be likely to win. Instead, Democrats would have a fighting chance in November when the historic presidential race is expected to draw record numbers of voters to the polls. Then again, Fossella's district is probably McCain territory, but at least Democrats think they'd have a better shot in November.